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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."