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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and longtime also-rans improving together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still